The article examines the issues of the current state of the fight against terrorist activity, identifies the stages of financing, identifies problematic areas of countering the financing of terrorism. Various approaches to the formation of threshold (critical) values of economic security indicators are considered. Based on the analysis of the works of domestic and foreign experts on the problem under consideration, as well as the developments of the authors of the article, the composition of the main indicators of the national security of the state on the issue under consideration is proposed and its adaptation is carried out in relation to modern Kazakh conditions; examples of their definition and justification are given.#nbsp;
keywords
Counteraction / terrorist activity/ stages of financing/ religious extremism/ terrorist crimes / indicator of economic security / threshold values
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At the present stage, manifestations of extremism and terrorism in various forms remain a threat to the national security of society, which have undergone a significant transformation. The analysis of the geopolitical situation shows an increase in the number of terrorist crimes. Today, there is a change in the trajectory of terrorist activity from the commission of isolated acts to the organization of full-scale international terrorist wars on a pseudo-religious basis, an increase in motivation from setting demands for improving the socio-economic situation to the struggle for obtaining power itself, strengthening the relationship between international terrorism and transnational organized crime, increasing the importance of the organizational component of the activities of extremist and terrorist organizations, their unification and development at the international level [1].#nbsp;
There are more than 500 terrorist organizations and movements with extensive connections and financial support in the world, according to the IMF, from 500 billion to 1.5 trillion dollars are laundered annually in the world, which is 5% of the global gross product. According to research, the total budget in the field of terror is from 5 to 20 billion dollars annually. The "quantity" of terrorism gave rise to its new quality, and technological progress, giving it modern capabilities, equalized the military potential with some states [2].
Economically self-sufficient religious extremism and terrorism is capable of reproduction under necessary and sufficient conditions, that is, if there are structures for money laundering (controlled economic agents). Consequently, the economic sector referred to in modern literature as the "gray economy" is used and sometimes created by the sphere of terror. For the functioning of the "gray economy" needs protection, and a liberal emigration policy, the expansion of free trade, the latest means and technologies of money laundering are its favorable conditions.
Studies of the world economy show that the regulation and control of the turnover of goods and capital are limited by national competencies, and the latest information technologies used by terrorist structures to attract financial resources make financing more accessible not only for terrorists, but also for other radical citizens who previously had no opportunity to provide assistance to terrorist organizations and not related to them.
The activity of terrorist activity and as a cause-and-effect relationship, the dynamics of the level of financing poses the task of science to develop theoretical foundations for countering the financing of religious extremism and terrorism (FRT), as well as improving the criminal law mechanism.
Research shows that financial and logistical support to extremist and terrorist organizations is formed at the expense of domestic and foreign sources and includes: finding sources of financing; money legalization; use of financial resources for the implementation of extremist and terrorist activities.
The first stage covers the creation of a system for the permanent receipt of financial resources both legal (private donations, collection through non-profit organizations, profit-making through economic activity) and illegal (fees from diasporas formed on ethnic, confessional, ideological grounds, illegal trafficking of weapons and narcotic drugs, attacks on individuals and financial institutions etc.) in various ways.
The second stage involves the movement of funds, namely the use of various legal and illegal financial mechanisms.
Experts of the international organization "Group for the Development of Financial Measures to Combat Money Laundering" (Financial Action Task Force - FATF) note that extremist and terrorist organizations use the same techniques as criminal communities for money laundering (smuggling of cash (couriers and large batches), structuring, depositing or withdrawing funds from bank accounts and purchase of various types of monetary instruments (traveler's and bank checks, money transfers); the use of national credit and financial systems of states for the purpose of transferring financial flows through offshore and illegal banks; the purchase of securities through shell companies with their subsequent resale on stock exchanges, etc.).
In addition, according to FATF analysts, modern technologies have "introduced new vulnerabilities in the financing of terrorism" [3], where illegal methods of delivery or legal cash withdrawal occupy a special place, the wide coverage and anonymity associated with social networks and new payment methods make these tools the most attractive in the financing of terrorism.
For example, according to domestic and foreign law enforcement agencies, illegal financial systems such as Hawala, Hundi and Feichien are actively involved in financing criminal, extremist and terrorist organizations.
At the third stage, extremist-terrorist formations directly use the funds received to realize their goals: propaganda, recruitment and training of new members of organizations, conducting illegal actions, preparation and commission of terrorist acts, etc.
To date, the existing system of countering the financing of extremist and terrorist activities includes a set of various measures that can be conditionally classified:
1. Prevention of religious extremism and terrorism;
2. Control over infrastructure and resources, as well as the suppression of the possibility of their use in the implementation of plans of extremist and terrorist organizations;#nbsp;
3. Carrying out comprehensive measures to identify and bring to justice persons involved in the financing of religious extremism and terrorism.
The positive trend of the measures being implemented to counter religious extremism and terrorism in Kazakhstan is also noted by foreign experts in the authoritative international independent comprehensive study – the Global Terrorism Index. During its implementation, the levels of terrorist activity in 138 countries of the world have been analyzed since 2012 and the terrorist threats that states have to face are indexed according to four main indicators (the number of terrorist incidents; the number of dead; the number of injured; the level of material damage). The index was developed by an international group of experts based on the Institute of Economics and Peace of the University of Sydney (Australia) on the basis of generalized information on more than 100 thousand acts of terrorist activity over the past decades. According to international experts, the coefficient of terrorist threats in Kazakhstan tends to decrease steadily: from 3.05 in 2012, 2.228 in 2018 to 1.57 in 2019. This allowed Kazakhstan to move to 75th place in the ranking of countries only for 2018-2019 (that is, by 10 percentage points)[4].
At the same time, even with all the relatively positive dynamics of statistical information, the western and southern regions of the country continue to remain one of the most tense regions of the formation of threats to the security of Kazakhstan. To date, more than 1,000 people are serving sentences for crimes of a terrorist nature, at the same time, their financial component became the object of criminal proceedings only in 2.7% of all identified crimes of this category (some criminal cases were terminated on the basis of compensation for damages in full or in connection with reconciliation of the parties) and about 10% were brought to administrative responsibility responsibility. In other words, the number of registered cases of terrorist financing in Kazakhstan against the background of the growth of the general level of organized extremist and terrorist crime remains very low. However, this does not reflect a low level of terrorism risk, but on the contrary, it can be an indicator of a significant risk of terrorist financing, an analysis of the current situation indicates the presence of significant problematic issues in providing operational investigative support for criminal proceedings to identify, expose and subsequently prove illegal activities of persons engaged in financing extremist and terrorist activities.
Attention is drawn to the trend of financing and other support of extremism and terrorism by organized groups formed on ethnic, confessional, ideological and social grounds.#nbsp;

An analysis of the current state of countering religious extremism and terrorism suggests that as a result of measures taken by national governments to combat the financing of terrorism, most networks of terrorist organizations had to decentralize channels for collecting and spending funds, and the cells switched to self-financing, therefore, we are not talking about monolithic "terrorism", but about a network unrelated to each other formations. They are neither a hierarchical system with a vertical structure, nor a network with horizontal connections, but combines features of both types and consist of a complex web of madrassas, foreign contacts, families, mosques, subordinate organizations that, based on a network of informal social connections, are able to learn and adapt, as well as be funded.
Thus, it is obvious that in order to counter religious extremism and terrorism, along with religious, ideological, political, social reasons, it is necessary to investigate the economic component of this phenomenon, that is, the economy of terror, since the institution of terrorism is impossible without financial injections, and the suppression of its financing channels will minimize the use of force methods and effectively resist or neutralize external threats.#nbsp;
The blocking of financial flows, that is, the identification of sources, funds used by terrorist organizations, including for the preparation and implementation of the terrorist act itself, implies the identification of specific persons who provided monetary, material or other means to finance terrorist activities, the establishment of the causes and conditions conducive to the commission of these acts.
Terrorist organizations receive funds for organizing activities from numerous sources, both internal and external. Internal sources of terrorist financing include funds that are obtained as a result of criminal activity, however, recently there has been a tendency for terrorist organizations to receive funds from completely legal sources: charitable and other organizations, citizens, economic activities. Participants in the process of financing illegal activities can use legally circulating funds (that is, legitimate income and savings) and income from the shadow economy.
Russian analysts, investigating the process of systematic formation of terrorist assets, within which the financing of specific terrorist acts is carried out at the tactical or operational level, classify three types of extremist and terrorist activities: low-budget; medium-budget and high-budget. This is very important, first of all, for the legal qualification of the financing of terrorism as a crime and the financing of terrorism is mainly understood in a narrow sense, only in the context of the preparation and commission of a terrorist act.#nbsp;
However, a comparative analysis of terrorist activities carried out by terrorist organizations shows that it usually has several components, such as ideological training, "combat" training, a terrorist act itself, and even financial assistance to the families of persons who carried out the terrorist attack. Each of these components needs economic resources, but the methods, methods, channels and sources of financing may differ significantly. For example, the means of a certain religious organization are used for ideological training in the spirit of religious hatred. After that, persons who are ready to sacrifice themselves due to their radical religious beliefs are sent for further "combat" training, which is formally funded by other persons and in other ways.
In this regard, countering the financing of terrorist activities is inextricably linked with the fight against economic crimes and organized crime. Today, they are becoming more and more clearly cross-border in nature and require close attention to materials on the sources, movements and sale (consumption) of funds that are used to finance terrorism. Accordingly, there is a need to study morphogenesis (formation), political and economic analysis of the reproductive cycle of extremist and terrorist activities.#nbsp;
In the economic analysis of the socio-economic causes of the development of terrorism, two main approaches can be distinguished – geo-economic and national-oriented. The first approach, based on the left-radical concept of economic theory of development (I. Wallerstein), considers modern terrorism as a product of the world economy as a whole, and the second, on the contrary, focuses on the socio-economic characteristics of individual countries based on economic and mathematical analysis of crime (a model of rational behavior of an economic agent), contributing to the development of terrorism in them [5].
There are few scientific studies of the economic analysis of the determinants of religious extremism and terrorism, the most interesting works are: analysis of national factors of stimulating/deterring terrorism based on economic and mathematical analysis of crime (G. Becker)#nbsp;[6],#nbsp;formation of incentives and antistimuli for potential terrorists (Ed.Glazer) [7], the concept of terrorism as "rational suicide" (R.Weintrob)#nbsp;[8],#nbsp;#nbsp;criminometric studies (A.Abadi [9],#nbsp;A.Freitag, J.Kruger and F.Schneider [10], as well as the neoinstitutional approach (Hernando de Soto)[11].
In our opinion, in order to effectively counter the financing of religious extremism and terrorism, it is necessary to study the economic component in three main areas, namely:#nbsp;
1. The economic theory of law, that is, the study of the economic efficiency of legal norms regulating the activities of legal business (R.Coase, R. Posner), as well as the influence of legal norms on the economic rules of the game (R. La Porta);
2. The study of the shadow economy (economic activity that evades accounting and control and is often illegal (E. de Soto), in particular the "gray economy", which is an integral part of it and differs from it in that financial resources are directed to extremist and terrorist activities;
3. Economic theory of crimes and punishments – the study of the criminal's activity as a special kind of his professional activity, as well as the effectiveness of various methods of crime deterrence (G.Becker)
For the political economic analysis of the "gray economy" (economic factors of the formation of terrorist movements) the application of the theory of rational expectations (R. Lucas) and game theory will help to understand the socio-economic origins terrorism, risks and to resist or limit the economic conditions of its development.#nbsp;
Accordingly, the political economic analysis will be a theoretical analysis of modern society and assume the existence of developed socio-economic relations, relations that have passed the stage of formation and development for a long period. Consequently, the division of the subject can be hierarchically constructed in the following way: universal abstract definitions; categories forming the internal structure of society and on which the main classes are based (capital, human resources, property relations, social relations within society, the process of exchange and circulation); state, taxes, public investments, population, emigration; international conditions of production, distribution, exchange, capital movement; world market.
Thus, for political and economic analysis, the starting position is the mode of production of material life, which determines social, political, spiritual and religious processes, social and state relations, religious and legal systems, theoretical teachings and views are derived from the original, that is, relations between people related to things and manifest as things. Studies show that considering terrorism without an economic component of terrorist and anti-terrorist activities will not be effective and is a posteriori. In the conditions of developed social relations, a person acts not only as a social, but also as a personalized and isolated subject. The social organization of groups involved in the commission of acts of terrorism has far-reaching consequences concerning aspects of their activities, including the financing of terrorism, individual groups change over time, responding to measures to combat them. State institutions have taken measures to regulate the movement of funds across borders through the channels of financial institutions in the formal sector. However, groups practicing terrorism have adapted to these regulatory measures and this creates even more difficult regulatory problems and potential overregulation traps. For this reason alone, the fight against the financing of terrorism should be viewed in the broad context of an integrated counter-terrorism strategy, which aims to create norms and standards for countering all forms of religious extremism and terrorism.

socio-economic development of the country meeting the requirements of national security are formulated.#nbsp;
In general, the list of these parameters corresponds to the structure of the concept of "economic security" and partially details it, and the threshold values are grouped according to the national interests of the country by economic sectors.
The first group of threshold values of economic security indicators concerns the production sector, its ability to function with minimal dependence on the outside world. Thresholds for the total volume of production are extremely important here. In this regard, the following threshold values have been adopted: the volume of gross domestic product as a whole is 75% of the average for the Big Seven countries; per capita is 50% of the average for the Seven; per capita is 100% of the global average of GDP.
The second group is the threshold values of indicators of the standard of living of the population: the share of citizens in the population with incomes below the subsistence minimum is 7%; life expectancy is 70 years; the gap between the incomes of 10% of the highest–income and 10% of the lowest–income groups of the population is 8 times; the unemployment rate is 8%.
The third group is the threshold values of financial condition indicators: the volume of domestic debt as a percentage of GDP – 30%; the volume of external debt as a percentage of GDP – 25%; budget deficit as a percentage of GDP – up to 5%; the volume of foreign currency in cash to the volume of cash tenge – 25%; money supply (M2) as a percentage of GDP – 50%.
Today, the actual indicators of a number of parameters in Kazakhstan significantly exceed the threshold values. However, threats to national security are increasingly becoming complex, and their classification into economic and non-economic is becoming largely conditional, the latter under certain circumstances can transform into military, and there is an increase in technical, military, economic, informational, religious and other external dangers.
The system of threshold values, which have received quantitative expression, allows to identify and take measures to prevent it. It is important to note that the highest degree of security for a country is achieved when the set of indicators is within the permissible limits of its threshold values.#nbsp;
Based on the analysis of the works of domestic and foreign specialists, as well as the authors' developments, we will consider some indicators of state security and adapt them to modern Kazakh conditions. In particular, we will consider the following indicators through the prism of the shadow (gray) economy: the ratio of resources involved in shadow turnover to GDP (the extent of the spread of the shadow economy); the prevalence among the population of adherents of destructive religious movements (the ratio of 500 people / 100,000 people of the population - no more); the total crime rate (the number of registered crimes per 100,000 people of the population) (1600 cases / 100,000 people of the population - no more); the prevalence of crimes against the person (150 cases / 100,000 people of the population - no more).
The analysis will use approved standards and generally accepted requirements and standards. In some cases, when determining threshold values is difficult, we use a comparative analysis based on empirical data.#nbsp;
Having for each country the actual data on the results of its rating and estimated by the above-mentioned indicators for several years (since 2012) and repeating the regression analysis for these years only for it, it is possible to obtain an equation characterizing the level of the country's condition in the future, depending on the predicted values of independent socio-economic indicators, i.e. the level of national security.
A more accurate forecast can be made by applying factor analysis for statistical data of a particular country, calculating the values predicted for the next period, as a rule, no more than two factors, which will contain information that is no longer contained in two components, but in a much larger number of them. The obtained functions, with their corresponding practical content, will allow assessing national security and predicting its state, that is, what is the level of dependence on intentional or accidental events. Beyond the threshold values, the state loses its ability for dynamic self-development, competitiveness in foreign and domestic markets, becomes the object of expansion of foreign and transnational monopolistic, as well as destructive associations and organizations, suffers losses from internal and external threats.
The ratio of resources involved in shadow turnover to GDP (the extent of the spread of the shadow economy). This indicator characterizes the level of "shadowization", and, consequently, the manageability and security of the country's economy. At the same time, the resources involved in shadow turnover are understood as those cash (commodity) flows that, as a result of conducting official (permitted) economic activity, were received (used) in violation of the current administrative, tax and other legislation, while it should be noted that the amount of lost tax or other payments represent only a certain part of the cash flow.
The shadow sector (unobserved economy) is present in the economy of any state and this is due, firstly, to the maximization of income by economic agents by avoiding taxes and other payments. A certain level of the shadow economy does not negatively affect the country's economy, however, it is difficult to assess such a level and assess the real scale of the shadow economy [12] and most studies on this problem are based on the measurement of indirect indicators, probabilistic estimates, mathematical modeling, etc.#nbsp;
A conditional feature of the level of prevalence of shadow economic activity, when it begins to have a significant negative impact on the economic development of the state, Western experts recognize the indicator of the scale of its spread in 18-20% in comparison with GDP, and V.V. Krivorotov as a threshold level for the indicator of the ratio of resources involved in shadow turnover to GDP in relation to the Russian Federation suggests accept a level of 20% [13]. In Kazakhstan, according to the revised methodology, the level of the shadow (unobserved) economy remains quite high (2017 - 29.88%; 2016 - 30%; 2015 - 32%; 2014 - 27%)
According to foreign scientists, the indicator of the critical level of the prevalence of the shadow economy has a value of 40-50% of the GDP produced, when the influence of shadow factors on economic life becomes so tangible that the boundaries between the official and shadow economy are erased, and the latter subordinates all spheres of society [13] that is, the economy becomes practically uncontrollable and incapable of development and improvement.
To study the dynamics of the spread of adherents of destructive religious movements among the population, it is necessary to calculate the threshold levels of religious extremism and terrorism in society based on statistical processing of average data for a certain period based on the construction of a dynamic series. The threshold level of radicalization is an indicator of the highest possible level of radicalization for a given time period. Exceeding the threshold level of radicalization indicates a threat to national interests and the state system.#nbsp;
The proposed method for calculating threshold levels of radicalization can be used to monitor the level of radicalization among the population and assess the likelihood of critical situations. Exceeding the threshold value is the number of adherents of destructive religious movements exceeding the threshold value by at least 10%.#nbsp;
If we proceed from the fact that there are about 4.5 thousand adherents of destructive religious movements in Kazakhstan, which is 32.8% lower than the calculated threshold number. This indicates (with approximately 85.3% probability) that there are no critical situations threatening the national security of the country.
The overall crime rate last year amounted to 1,320 registered crimes per 100,000 people, which is 17.5% lower than official data for 2018 and means an improvement in the critical level of security, since in 2018 the country was at the threshold level (1,600 cases/100,000 people, and in 2015 - 2,210 cases).#nbsp;
Statistical data on the prevalence in 2019 of criminal acts that infringe on the safety of life, health, freedom, honor and dignity, sexual integrity, constitutional rights and freedoms of man and citizen, the interests of family and minors, that is, crimes against the person amounted to 9381 crimes, this value is 33% higher than the threshold of the security level, respectively, according to Kazakhstan is vulnerable to this criterion (199 cases/ 100,000 people; the threshold value is no more than 150 cases).
In such conditions, according to external experts, threats to the national security of the country may arise, such as possible socio-political consequences, namely, criminalization of public relations, mass frustration of the consciousness of the population, mental degradation of the population, delegitimization of power [14], alienation of power from the people.
Here we can talk not so much about the permissible limitations of indicators, but about the values that should serve as a guide in development. So, if the actual value of this indicator in the previous period was 60%, then the threshold value is 30%. The dynamics of the indicator change is quite slow, at the same time the actual value is approaching the set value.#nbsp;

There is no universal approach to the formation of threshold values of national security indicators. In many cases, the determination of threshold values is based on expert assessments, which are given by domestic and foreign scientists in the course of research, taking into account some global averages and trends. In some cases, in combination with expert assessments, special mathematical methods can be used to obtain threshold values in conditions of high uncertainty of the initial information, as well as due to discrepancies in expert assessments on a particular process or phenomenon.#nbsp;
Based on the works of many domestic and foreign scientists, as well as our own research in the field of national security, we believe that it is necessary to use a number of indicators of national security of the state, which reflect the prevalence of destructive religious movements, as well as threshold levels for them in relation to the conditions of the Republic of Kazakhstan to assess the dynamics of radicalization of Kazakh society, taking into account national characteristics, mentality the population of the country and other factors.
An equally important task related to ensuring the national security of Kazakhstan is to conduct an analysis at the regional level. First of all, this is due to the high unevenness and differences in socio-economic development between individual regions. Therefore, the threshold values for individual regions will be different and differ from the values for the republic as a whole. If this is not taken into account, then the conclusions and recommendations on the state of safety and its regulation may be erroneous and not give the desired results.#nbsp;
Religious extremism and terrorism as an internal threat makes the country more vulnerable to external threats and, as a result, the unstable political, social, and economic situation underlying possible interethnic and ethnic differences, become a rather complex object for preventive measures.
Summing up, we note that in modern Kazakhstan conditions, threshold values are an important tool for system analysis and forecasting of the dynamics of adherents of destructive religious movements and their impact on the national security of the country. Today, the development of a policy of intolerance to various kinds of extremist and terrorist manifestations, the eradication of a sympathetic mood in society towards religious extremists and terrorists under the guise of false ideas formed by distorting social, nationalist and religious postulates is the most important task.#nbsp;
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1. Ovchinsky, V.S., Sundiev I.A. Organizational weapons: Functional genesis and system of technologies of the XXI century (report to the Izborsky Club). URL:#nbsp;https://izborsk-club.ru/1466
2. The main method of financing terrorist activities. Financing of terrorist activities.#nbsp;https://lllit.ru/salads/glavnyi-sposob-finansirovaniya-terroristicheskoi-#nbsp;#nbsp;deyatelnosti.html
3. Emerging Terrorist Financing Risks. FATF, Paris, 2015. P. 35
4. Institute for Economics & Peace. Global Terrorism Report 2019: Measuring and understanding the impact of terrorism, Sydney, November 2019.#nbsp;http://visionofhumanity.org/reports#nbsp;#nbsp;
5. Latov Yu.V. Economic analysis of modern terrorism. Textbook for universities. Moscow: Academy of Management of the Ministry of Internal Affairs of Russia, 2007. - 88 p.
6. Rubin P. H. The Economics of Crime // The Economics of Crime. Cambridge (Mass.), 1980. P. 13.
7. Glaeser E.L. The Political Economy of Hatred // Quarterly Journal of Economics. 2005. p. 45-86 (http://www.wcfia.harvard.edu/papers/792__19037-w9171.pdf ).
8. Wintrobe R. Can Suicide Bombers be Rational? University of Western Ontario, 2003 (mimeo).
9. Abadie A. Poverty, Political Freedom and the Roots of Terrorism (2004) -#nbsp;http://ksghome.harvard.edu/~aabadie/povterr.pdf.
10. Freytag A., Krüger J., Schneider F. The Origins of Terrorism. Cross-Country Estimates with Discrete Choice and Count Data Methods (2006) -#nbsp;http://www.econ.jku.at/Schneider/TerrorPaperJanuar06.pdf.
11. Soto E. de. Another way. The economic response to terrorism. Chelyabinsk: Socium, 2008
12. Krivorotov V. V. Economic security of the state and regions: a textbook / V.V. Krivorotov, A.V. Kalina. - Yekaterinburg: UGTU - UPI, 2010. - 365 p.
13. Why is it important for the Russian government to know the size of the shadow economy? // Discussion materials. August 2002. -#nbsp;http://dist-economics.eu.spb.ru/HTML/predmet/#nbsp ;discussion/black _economics/black_economics.htm .
14. M. Dogan. Legitimacy of regimes and crisis of trust // Sociological research. - 1994. - No. 6. - p. 151