Transformation of the security sphere of Central Asia in the Afghan direction / Under the general ed . Tairova R.A., author's collective Tairov R.A., Knyazev A.A., Stolpovsky V.I. – Nur-Sultan:
JSC "Center for Military-Strategic research", 2021. – 352 p.

The book presents analytical material in the regional and country context on the forecast of the impact of cross-border threats on the countries of Central Asia in connection with the current military-political situation in Afghanistan.

The President of JSC "Center for Military-Strategic research", Major General, Doctor of Law Karbuzov K-K. Zh. before the event, noted that for readers this book is one of the few examples of a scientific and comprehensive analysis of external and internal threats facing the region, including modern Kazakhstan. Systematic studies of military threats and the military dimension of regional policy, in general, are still rare in the Republic of Kazakhstan.
Unfortunately, military threats, in the era of globalization, are not getting less. They are rather transformed, shifting from the international level to the domestic level, becoming more complex, which requires more attention from the scientific community.
The book was prepared as part of a research project. It is the result of the painstaking work of our specialists and contains not only an informational summary of the latest data on the situation in Afghanistan and Central Asian countries, but also a predictive analysis of various development scenarios, the international, military-political and strategic situation around the Republic of Kazakhstan, systematization was made and conclusions were drawn regarding the likelihood of their implementation. This will allow military strategists, representatives of law enforcement agencies to develop short-term, medium-term and long-term planning horizons to ensure the national security of the Republic of Kazakhstan.
It seems that this book will be of interest to practitioners dealing with international and military-political issues, researchers, experts and political scientists, as well as to a wide range of readers interested in regional security and defense policy of the Republic of Kazakhstan.
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During the presentation, the team of authors outlined the idea and content of the book. It was noted that this is not the first presentation that allows the audience to gain new knowledge from personal contact with the authors.
The invited guests immediately got into this book – because it gives experts, military strategists and politicians an opportunity to assess the current situation in the regional and country context about the forecast of the impact of cross-border threats on the countries of Central Asia, in connection with the current military-political situation in Afghanistan.
During the presentation, there were lively discussions on the content of the book, the guests of the event shared their opinions about the publication, the creative atmosphere was supported by classical music.
The presentation featured excerpts from the book: "The great wisdom of nature is that history develops in a time spiral. Each next turn adds new elements and repeats the previous one in some way. The modern history of Afghanistan is a vivid example of this, when from 1996 to 2001 the Taliban came and was in power. In 2001, the United States and NATO overthrew the Taliban. The era of building an Afghan society according to Western patterns has come, which lasted 20 years. What came of it? Everyone knows that Afghanistan has become a "graveyard of empires" for the United States and NATO. Those who came to the country 20 years ago in the name of fighting extremism and terrorism have not coped with this task. The colossus of Afghan democracy has collapsed, which the West has put on clay feet.
The Taliban, despite years of persistent "struggle" with the United States and NATO, is still alive, combat-ready and has returned to power in Afghanistan. The author's team, having studied the situation in Afghanistan, notes that despite the efforts made by the new government, it has not been able to enter the path of peace-building. The Afghan authorities cannot stabilize the internal political situation, consolidate Afghan society, and ensure food and other security in the country. The established power structures are not effective enough, and the quality of public administration remains low. In addition, there are chaotic migration processes in the country – tens of thousands of refugees fleeing to the border areas of Afghanistan in search of a new life from the arbitrariness of the authorities and a humanitarian catastrophe – thereby causing a serious threat to neighboring states, including Central Asian countries.
Afghanistan is becoming a new "black hole" for the region, which is already attracting various international terrorist organizations, criminal groups, drug producers and drug couriers like a magnet. The world is entering hard times. What they will be and what should be prepared for is of concern not only to politicians, but also to the widest circles of the international community.
What future awaits Afghanistan under the Taliban, will they be able to retain power? Will the Taliban try to export radical ideas to Central Asian countries, as well as extremist and jihadist groups that settled there during the war? To what extent can the Taliban's power in Afghanistan be dangerous for Russia, China, Iran, Pakistan, India, Turkey, Central Asian countries, the entire CIS and EU space, even though some countries are, as it were, on the sidelines? What risks can cross-border security projects carry?
And finally, the main thing: How to solve the Taliban dilemma – to recognize or not to recognize it by the new government? Is it possible in principle?
The answers to these questions are often mostly intuitive. They are usually based on the empirical knowledge of certain expert groups and an eclectic selection of factual material. In principle, such forecasts are also useful, but, as a rule, they are not systemic in nature and are highly susceptible to subjectivism."
In this context, the appearance of the work "Transformation of the security sphere of Central Asia in the Afghan direction" is a very timely and unique product.
It is difficult to find similar publications on this topic in Western sources, at least those that are open to public access.
In the preparation of this book, documents, regulatory legal acts, sociological research data and expert assessments published in open sources, as well as posted on official state websites and websites of various national and international organizations were used.
In a methodological sense, the methods of strategic forecasting in the field of foreign and defense policy, SWOT analysis and "Delphi" - "brainstorming", interviews and hybrid surveys with experts and interviewers were used for the study.
The forecasts made on the basis of this methodology create a good foundation for effective planning of the foreign and defense policy of the countries of the region.
Structurally, the work "Transformation of the security sphere of Central Asia in the Afghan direction" consists of five chapters. Each chapter has its own purpose, it examines the key external and internal factors affecting national, regional and global security, predictive scenarios are made, their hierarchy and interrelation are determined. Based on these scenarios, assumptions are made about possible threats to the countries of the region in certain strategic directions. The nature of possible military conflicts of the future is also considered, in which, for various reasons, not only geopolitical players, but also the countries of the region may be involved.
Summing up, it should be noted that the work contains many new ideas, observations and assessments, as well as practical proposals relevant for forecasting international relations and the military-political situation in the region.
The selection and systematization of the material in the framework of this work, the conclusions and recommendations made in it will allow the expert reader to get a complete picture of the security of Central Asia in the Afghan direction, as well as use it in practical activities, in the interests of ensuring the national security of the state, in military-political forecasting and planning.